OPINION: Great EV Sales Prediction For 2026
In this article, we show;
the dramatic progress of EV adoption,
which manufacturers are winning and which are losing,
the Top 20 selling models in 2025.
Plus, SmartGrandads prediction for EV sales in 2026.
2025 - Tipping Point For EVs
At the beginning of 2025, Smartgrandad predicted that we would reach the Tipping Point for EV vehicle sales. Below is the table showing the % sales 2025 (Jan-Nov) v 2024 (Jan-Nov).
It is clear to see that in 2025 EV adoption reached the Tipping Point where over 60% of vehicles sold are EVs.
2025 Key Outcomes
- The Rise of New Affordable Platforms: Models like the Skoda Elroq, Renault 5, and Kia EV3 rapidly ascended to the top 10 within months of their release, signaling a shift toward more affordable and compact electric options.
- Tesla’s Volatility: While the Model Y remains the single best-selling model, Tesla’s overall market share in Europe fell significantly (from ~18% in early 2024 to ~7.7% in 2025).
- Traditional Manufacturers Start Scaling: as legacy manufacturers like Volkswagen and BMW scaled their offerings improving profitability and VFM.
- Chinese Brands: MG and BYD more than doubled their year-over-year sales in several European markets, despite increased regulatory scrutiny and shifting subsidy landscapes.
- UK Performance: In the UK specifically, BEVs reached a record 23.4% market share in 2025, driven by manufacturer incentives and the introduction of the Electric Car Grant.
2025 Winners and Losers
In 2025, the European battery electric vehicle (BEV) market saw Volkswagen surpassed Tesla as the largest electric brand in the region.
The market also featured a strong debut for the Skoda Elroq and the Renault 5.
Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Zeekr and Xpeng saw significant increases.
Tesla sees falling Model Y & Model 3. With no new models and turbulent background its losing significant ground.
2025 Top 20 Best Selling BEVs
The following table lists the top 20 best-selling BEVs in Europe (EU and UK) for 2025 based on full-year and year-to-date data available as of January 2026.
| Top 20 Best Selling BEVs in Europe & UK (2025) | |||
| Rank | Manufacturer/Model | Units Sold (2025) | % Change vs 2024 |
| 1 | Tesla Model Y | 127,286 | -7.0% |
| 2 | Skoda Elroq | 81,618 | New Entry |
| 3 | Tesla Model 3 | 76,077 | -59.0% |
| 4 | VW ID.3 | 71,579 | +104.0% |
| 5 | Renault 5 / Alpine A290 | 70,455 | New Entry |
| 6 | VW ID.4 | 66,03 | +100%+ |
| 7 | VW ID.7 | 62,400+ | Strong Gains |
| 8 | Skoda Enyaq | 58,400+ | +46.0% |
| 9 | Kia EV3 | 55,000+ | New Entry |
| 10 | Audi Q4 e-tron | 51,200+ | +50%+ |
| 11 | BMW iX1 | 48,600* | Stable |
| 12 | Volvo EX30 | 45,800* | -50.0% |
| 13 | Audi Q6 e-tron | 42,500* | New Entry |
| 14 | BMW i4 | 39,200* | +20.0% |
| 15 | MG MG4 | 37,500* | -60%+ |
| 16 | BYD Atto 3 | 34,200* | “+143.0% |
| 17 | Ford Explorer | 32,800* | New Entry |
| 18 | Fiat 500e | 29,400* | Decreased |
| 19 | Mercedes EQA | 27,100* | Stable |
| 20 | Ford Puma Gen-E | 25,600* | New Entry |
*Estimated final total based on year-to-date trajectory and monthly growth rates reported through November/December 2025.
Find Your Ideal BEV
Use SmartGrandads Model Finder (https://smartgrandad.com/smartgrandad-evs-for-all/select-model/) to find the right EV for your needs
Select Using Filters
- Body Style – SUV, Salon, Hatchback, Pickup, Estate, …
- Manufacturer – Over 60 inc. VW, Mercedes, BYD, Tesla, Toyota, …
- Size – From City Car to Full Size, Luxury & Sports
- Voltage – From 250v(AC Slow Charging), 400v(DC Fast), 800v(DC Rapid) to 1000v(DC Ulta Rapid)
See the Model Details
- Body Style and size segment it is (including dimensions),
- Platform architecture including voltage plus Range & Efficiency, include 0-100km/62miles per hour time.
- Technical capabilities (e.g. driver Assistance features),
- Quality of the interior, the Storage capacity (Front & Rear),
- App functionality,
- 3 Pros and 3 Cons of having this car,
- Overall summary
Plus
- Real World Range data &
- Top YOUTUBE Reviews
Whats Likely To Happen in 2026 and Beyond
Key Implications for the 2026 Market:
- Price Convergence: The gap between BEV and ICE pricing will continue to narrow as manufacturers leverage cheaper LFP batteries and localized European production.
- Regulatory Pressure: The UK’s ZEV mandate target will rise to 33%, forcing even more aggressive marketing and discounting from brands that lag in electrification.
- Infrastructure Maturity: Now that rapid charger infrastructure on motorways is largely in place, the local charging infrastructure is in focus for 2026, further eroding any existing range anxiety.
- Manufacturer Consolidation: The “Great Realignment” will likely continue to favor groups with flexible architectures and strong vertical integration, while pure-play manufacturers with aging lineups may face further market share erosion.
- Safety In Numbers: More people have company electric cars /vans and know other family / friends who have EVs. With 95% of these saying they would not go back to ICE vehicles, it is re-assuring for those who have never tried an EV to change from ICE.
During 2026 landscape is expected to be defined by a “final showdown” between combustion and electric vehicles as more affordable models—such as the Renault 5, Citroën ë-C3, and China’s hi tech, lower-priced variants—hit the showrooms in volume.
With battery costs continuing to fall and the charging network reaching critical mass, the transition appears to be structural and irreversible.
For 2026, SmartGrandad Predicts
As people understand that EVs are simply Cheaper and Better that ICE vehicles for both long and short journeys, there will be a significant increase in EV ownership.
Any worries about Battery Life and Range Anxiety will disappear. Manufacturers will bring more economic models try and equal those from China which offer such Value For Money.
Price conscious customers will realise that they do not have to buy a traditional western brand to get a quality vehicle.
Therefore in 2026, SmartGrandad predicts that over 75% of car sales to be Electric.
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